Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 12.216349 13.976179 15.870109 18.056227 20.506217 23.163365 26.259368
2025-07-20 9.643412 12.034372 14.805505 18.239583 22.364755 27.143550 33.080455
2025-07-27 8.230970 10.868451 14.074790 18.231503 23.446432 29.738544 37.867256
2025-08-03 7.045038 9.793867 13.283206 17.993367 24.134694 31.814021 42.078230
2025-08-10 6.233714 9.063578 12.792867 18.004623 25.026236 34.074757 46.518316
2025-08-17 5.627564 8.525072 12.475883 18.172844 26.076608 36.538222 51.291296
2025-08-24 5.057844 7.965133 12.058406 18.135867 26.799830 38.553677 55.514722
2025-08-31 4.539086 7.418757 11.598898 17.979390 27.310661 40.264395 59.360491
2025-09-07 4.164463 7.045731 11.348125 18.084385 28.168545 42.463050 63.946478
2025-09-14 3.939676 6.878933 11.382142 18.596663 29.625489 45.553653 69.906903
2025-09-21 3.576293 6.453771 10.981863 18.410846 30.015180 47.098052 73.678209
2025-09-28 3.116570 5.824368 10.207555 17.580586 29.359753 47.047672 75.071969
2025-10-05 2.956689 5.693730 10.232374 18.030327 30.727271 50.113823 81.297867
2025-10-12 2.785989 5.528197 10.185868 18.357936 31.915429 52.957200 87.308168
2025-10-19 2.564969 5.249435 9.922881 18.300303 32.465572 54.817663 91.856410
2025-10-26 2.339231 4.939346 9.579669 18.078087 32.722901 56.214096 95.718419
2025-11-02 2.171003 4.721131 9.379512 18.083668 33.349581 58.211861 100.594124
2025-11-09 2.041813 4.565994 9.279618 18.254518 34.257012 60.690667 106.324546
2025-11-16 1.895482 4.362102 9.073117 18.216720 34.794716 62.573330 111.142607
2025-11-23 1.747148 4.139214 8.812747 18.059851 35.107726 64.083042 115.387666
2025-11-30 1.643162 3.999028 8.699299 18.165185 35.884929 66.395284 121.040556
2025-12-07 1.592947 3.969850 8.800168 18.679523 37.420928 70.055838 129.089255
2025-12-14 1.471021 3.770506 8.546168 18.492960 37.658662 71.474118 133.354072